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THE  LIBRARY 

OF 

THE  UNIVERSITY 

OF  CALIFORNIA 

RIVERSIDE 


Digitized  by  the  Internet  Archive 

in  2007  with  funding  from 

Microsoft  Corporation 


http://www.archive.org/details/distributionofinOOknauiala 


Publications  of  tlie  National  Bureau  of 
Economic  Research,  Incorporated 

NO.  3 


DISTRIBUTION  OF  INCOME  BY  STATES 
IN  1919 


\\j     **    -    '^  <+  ^"TS 


DISTRIBUTION  OF  INCOME  BY 
STATES  IN  1919 


BY 

OSWALD  W.  KNAUTH 

OP  THE  STAFF  OF  THE  NATIONAL  BUREAU  OF  ECONOMIC  RESEARCH 


Ml 


NEW  YORK 

HARCOURT,  BRACE  AND  COMPANY 

1922 


KSJ 


COPTKIGHT,  1922,  BT 
HABCOURT,  BRACE  AND  COMPANY,  INC. 


Printed  in  the  U.  S.  A. 


PREFATORY  NOTE 

The  "Distribution  of  Income  by  States  in  1919"  is  a  by-product  of 
the  volumes  on  "Income  in  the  United  States"  which  have  already  been 
published  by  the  Bureau.  It  is  one  of  a  series  of  studies  which  the  Bureau 
is  undertaking  in  connection  with  its  main  topics  of  research  and  which 
may  later  be  collected  in  a  formal  volume.  It  is  issued  at  this  time  in  order 
to  meet  the  special  needs  of  many  investigators  concerned  with  the  compar- 
ative capacity  of  the  various  states  to  bear  increased  taxes,  to  buy  goods 
of  various  sorts,  to  absorb  securities,  etc.  It  also  indicates  the  relative 
importance  of  agriculture  in  the  different  sections  of  the  country. 

The  present  study  undertakes  to  distribute  the  aggregate  income  of  the 
American  people  among  the  States  on  the  basis  of  such  official  data  and 
other  indices  as  are  available.  This  distribution  is  based  on  data  for  1919, 
and  no  single  year  is  "typical."  The  small  incomes  received  by  farmers  in 
Montana  after  the  bad  weather  of  1919  certainly  do  not  represent  average 
conditions  and  probably  less  striking  anomalies  exist  among  the  figures  for 
other  States.  However,  the  distribution  must  rest  upon  the  State  data 
gathered  by  the  Census  and  those  data  are  to  be  had  only  for  1919. 

The  reader  who  is  looking  for  results,  and  is  not  interested  in  the  method, 
will  find  these  results  presented  in  tabular  form  on  pages  25  to  30. 

Like  all  publications  of  the  National  Bureau  of  Economic  Research,  this 
paper  has  been  submitted  for  criticism  to  the  Bureau's  directors  and  ap- 
proved by  them.  Hearty  thanks  are  due  to  members  of  the  Board  for 
their  help  in  improving  what  remains  at  best  a  rough  set  of  approximations. 

The  Directors  of  the  Bureau  are  as  follows: 

Directors-at-large : 

T.  S.  Adams,  Adviser  to  the  U.  S.  Treasury  Department. 

John  R.  Commons,  Professor  of  Political  Economy,  University  of  Wisconsin. 

John  P.  Frey,  Editor  of  the  International  Molders'  Journal. 

Edwin  F.  Gay,  President  of  the  New  York  Evening  Post. 

Harry  W.  Laidler,  Secretary  of  the  League  for  Industrial  Democracy. 

Elwood  Mead,  Professor  of  Rural  Institutions,  University  of  California. 

Wesley  C.  Mitchell,  Professor  of  Economics,  Columbia  University. 

J.  E.  Sterrett,  Member  of  the  firm  of  Price,  Waterhouse  &  Company. 

N.  I.  Stone,  Labor  Manager,  Hickey-Freeman  Company. 

Allyn  A.  Young,  Professor  of  Economics,  Harvard  University. 

Directors-by- Appointment,  nominated  by  organizations: 
Hugh  Frayne,  The  American  Federation  of  Labor. 
David  Friday,  The  American  Economic  Association. 
W.  R.  Ingalls,  American  Engineering  Council. 
J.  M.  Larkin,  National  Personnel  Association. 
W.  H.  Nichols,  Jr.,  The  National  Industrial  Conference  Board. 
George  E.  Roberts,  The  American  Bankers'  Association. 
Malcolm  C.  Rorty,  The  American  Statistical  Association. 
A.  W.  Shaw,  The  Periodical  Publishers'  Association. 
Gray  Silver,  The  American  Federation  of  Farm  Bureaus. 


THE  DISTRIBUTION  OF  INCOME 
BY  STATES 

in  1919 


I.  INTRODUCTION 

In  a  previous  publication  of  this  Bureau,  the  income  of  the  United  States 
in  1919  was  estimated  at  66.7  billion  dollars.1  This  estimate  was  based  on 
the  incomes  received  by  gainfully  employed  persons,  and  was  divided  into 
the  following  categories — 

INCOME  OF  THE  UNITED  STATES,   1919 

Billion 
dollars 
Income  of  persons  receiving  over  $2,000  per  year  (excluding  farmers  and  farm 

laborers) $18.90 

Income  of  persons  receiving  under  $2,000  per  year  (excluding  farmers  and  farm 

laborers) 32.65 

Income  of  Farm  Laborers 2 .  30 

Income  of  Farmers 10 .  85 

Corporate  Surplus 2 .  00 

Total $66.70  2 

Many  of  the  items  on  which  these  estimates  for  the  country  rest  are 
available  also  by  States.  The  Bureau  of  the  Census  has  published  in  its 
advance  bulletins  the  number  of  gainfully  employed  persons  on  January  1, 
1920  and  most  of  the  details  concerning  farmers.  The  Bureau  of  Internal 
Revenue  has  published  by  States  the  amount  of  income  reported  under  the 
income-tax  law.  Where  direct  data  of  this  kind  are  lacking,  it  is  possible 
to  construct  index  numbers  which  can  be  used  to  distribute  parts  of  the 
total  National  Income  among  the  48  States.  Such  State  estimates,  of 
course,  cannot  have  the  same  accuracy  as  the  larger  estimate  of  the  Na- 
tional Income,  if  for  no  other  reason  than  that  a  small  error  is  more  impor- 
tant in  a  small  total  than  it  is  in  a  large  one. 

For  many  purposes,  it  is  quite  as  important  to  know  the  proportions  of 
income  received  by  States  as  it  is  to  know  the  total  for  the  country.    Cer- 

1  Income  in  the  United  States,  Volume  II,  chap.  26.    Harcourt,  Brace  &  Company. 

2  The  amount  distributed  in  the  summary  table  below  is  66.2  billion  dollars;  the 
difference  of  one-half  billion  dollars  being  the  amount  paid  to  soldiers  which  it  was 
impossible  to  distribute  among  states  in  1919. 

1 


2  THE  DISTRIBUTION  OF  INCOME  BY  STATES 

tain  details  of  this  State  distribution  are  particularly  interesting :  for  exam- 
ple, the  variations  of  per-capita  income,  the  varying  proportions  of  farm- 
ers' income  to  the  total  income,  and  the  distribution  of  farmers'  income. 

II.  THE  METHOD 

A.  The  Income  of  Persons  Receiving  Over  $2,000  per  Year.    (Excluding 

Farmers) 

The  income  of  persons  receiving  over  $2,000  per  year  (excluding  farmers) 
has  been  treated  in  the  following  manner:  The  amount  shown  for  each 
State  in  the  official  Statistics  of  Income,  1919,  has  been  listed.  This  amount 
requires  adjustment  for  the  present  purpose  in  three  ways:  first,  it  includes 
a  part,  but  only  a  part,  of  the  incomes  in  the  ranges  between  $1,000  and 
$2,000;  second,  it  includes  income  due  to  agriculture;  and  third,  it  does  not 
include  income  which  should  have  been,  but  was  not,  reported.  In  order 
to  make  these  adjustments,  (1)  the  amounts  reported  in  the  income-range 
$l,000-$2,000  have  been  subtracted  from  the  total  of  each  state;  (2)  the 
amount  reported  as  due  to  agriculture,  $1,211  million,  has  been  apportioned 
according  to  the  percentage  of  farmers'  incomes  in  each  state  and  the  ratio 
which  the  average  farmers'  incomes  of  each  state  are  to  the  average  farm- 
ers' incomes  of  the  whole  country;  and  (3)  the  resulting  income  in  each 
state  as  left  by  these  two  adjustments  has  been  raised  to  bring  the  sum  for 
all  the  States  to  the  estimated  national  total  of  $17,500  million.  (See  In- 
come in  the  United  States,  volume  II,  Chapter  22.)  The  last  adjustment 
appears  to  be  the  least  satisfactory;  it  involves  the  tacit  assumption  that 
the  evasion  of  income  taxes  by  failure  to  report  and  under-reporting  is 
uniform  in  all  states — an  assumption  which  may  or  may  not  be  valid.1 

Next  the  non -taxable  income  must  be  apportioned.  The  income  from 
homes  owned  by  the  individuals  occupying  them,  amounting  to  700  million 
dollars,  has  been  distributed  among  the  States  according  to  the  percentage 
of  the  total  income-tax  payers  resident  in  each  State.  The  remaining  tax- 
exempt  income,  mostly  interest  on  exempted  bonds,  amounted  to  710 
million  dollars  in  1919.  This  sum  has  been  apportioned  according  to  the 
total  income  of  persons  having  $25,000  or  more  per  year  in  the  several 
States.  The  reason  for  this  is  that  the  exempt  income  appears  to  be  highly 
concentrated  in  the  higher  range  of  incomes. 

1  "I  am  enclosing  my  approval  of  the  publication  of  the  section  on  the  Distribution  of 
Income  by  States.  I  want  to  place  myself  on  record,  however,  as  believing  that  the 
facts  are  not  in  accordance  with  the  presumption  that  there  is  an  equal  amount  of  failure 
to  report  and  of  under-reporting  in  every  state.  In  my  opinion  there  is  evidence  in  the 
income  tax  statistics  themselves  that  there  are  very  large  differences  in  the  degree  of 
accuracy  of  these  figures  in  different  states.  Nevertheless,  the  question  is  so  difficult, 
and  is  in  particular  so  full  of  political  dynamite  that  I  do  not  see  that  the  Bureau  could 
possibly  adopt  any  other  course  than  the  one  it  has  followed." — Allyn  A.  Young. 


THE   METHOD 


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THE   METHOD  3 

B.  Income  of  Persons  Receiving  under  $2,000  per  year.     (Excluding 

Farmers) 

In  apportioning  the  total  sum  of  wages  received  by  persons  having  less 
than  $2,000  per  year  it  is  necessary  to  allow  for:  (1)  differences  in  the  gen- 
eral level  of  wages  in  different  States,  and  (2)  differences  in  the  relative 
numbers  of  persons  following  high-paid  and  low-paid  occupations.  A  sam- 
ple table  is  appended  to  illustrate  the  method  used. 

The  number  of  persons  gainfully  employed  on  January  1st  in  each  of 
the  eight  main  groups  under  which  the  Census  classifies  the  occupation 
returns  is  reported  by  States  in  the  Census  of  1920.  From  these  data  and 
from  the  estimated  number  of  persons  having  incomes  over  $2,000,  it  is 
possible  to  approximate  the  number  of  persons  in  each  occupation  group 
in  each  State  having  incomes  less  than  $2,000.  To  this  end,  the  number  of 
persons  in  each  occupation  group  as  reported  by  the  Census  has  been 
adjusted  in  the  ratio  applied  to  that  occupation  group  in  the  estimate  for 
the  whole  country.  These  reducing  ratios  are  computed  from  Tables  23E, 
F,  and  G  of  Income  in  the  United  States,  volume  II,  chapter  23.  From 
this  point  forward,  the  general  method  of  estimating  the  total  wages  in 
each  State  is  the  same  as  that  used  for  the  United  States.  This  procedure 
consists  in  multiplying  the  number  of  persons  in  each  occupation  group  by 
the  average  wages  for  the  corresponding  group,  and  adding  together  the 
products  in  order  to  find  the  total  wages  in  each  state. 

While  this  computation  gives  the  estimated  total  payments  for  personal 
services,  it  does  not  show  the  total  income  from  all  sources.  In  Chapter  23 
of  Income  in  the  United  States,  it  was  estimated  that  in  the  case  of  per- 
sons receiving  less  than  $2,000  per  year,  income  from  other  sources  was 
about  9.5  per  cent  of  the  income  from  wages.  This  percentage  was  there- 
fore added  to  wages  in  order  to  arrive  at  the  total  income  in  each  State  of 
persons  receiving  less  than  $2,000.  The  results  are  shown  in  the  summary 
table. 

The  following  form  was  used  for  estimating  the  total  income  of  wage  and 
salary  earners  in  each  State.  A  complete  transcription  of  the  original 
data  used  in  making  the  estimates  would  be  extremely  cumbersome  and 
would  serve  no  useful  purpose.  The  original  tables,  however,  are  open  to 
the  inspection  of  anyone  who  is  interested. 


THE   DISTRIBUTION   OF   INCOME   BY   STATES 


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THE  METHOD  7 

As  said,  to  estimate  the  annual  wages  of  persons  in  each  occupation 
group,  indices  were  found  for  each  State,  and  applied  to  the  average  annual 
wages  for  each  occupation  group  in  the  whole  country.  In  this  way,  the 
different  wage  levels  obtaining  in  different  States,  as  well  as  the  different 
occupations  of  the  gainfully  employed  in  different  States  were  given  their 
due  weight. 

The  sources  from  which  the  varying  income  from  wages  imputed  to 
different  States  were  drawn  are  as  follows: — 

(1)  Mining.  The  Census  of  Mines  and  Quarries,  1919,  gives  the  total 
wages  paid  and  the  number  of  miners  paid  in  each  State. 

(2)  Manufacturing.  The  Census  of  1919  gives  the  number  employed 
in  manufacturing,  and  also  the  total  wages  paid  in  each  State. 

(3)  Transportation.  The  reports  of  the  Interstate  Commerce  Com- 
mission show  the  wages  paid  for  similar  work  in  three  divisions  of 
the  country — Eastern,  Southern,  and  Western.  These,  together 
with  similar  data  furnished  by  the  American  Telephone  and 
Telegraph  Company,  have  been  used  as  a  basis  for  adjusting 
wage  rates  by  States.  The  number  of  persons  employed  is 
estimated  from  the  Census  of  Occupations,  1920. 

(5)  Public  Service.  This  is  a  small  group,  for  which  no  systematic 
wage  data  exist.  The  relative  wages  have  been  apportioned  in 
general  conformity  with  the  other  groups.  The  estimates  of 
numbers  employed  are  based  on  the  Census  of  Occupations. 

(6)  The  relative  wages  and  salaries  of  persons  listed  under  Profes- 
sional Service  in  different  States  have  been  apportioned  accord- 
ing to  an  index  constructed  from  relative  rates  of  salaried  em- 
ployees in  manufacturing  and  mining.  Again,  the  Census  of 
Occupations  gives  a  basis  for  estimating  the  numbers  of  persons. 

(7)  No  systematic  data  exist  in  the  field  of  Domestic  and  Personal 
Service.  Owing  to  this  lack,  an  index  based  on  manufacturing 
wages  was  used  to  determine  the  relative  rates  in  each  State;  and 
the  number  of  persons  employed  was  estimated  from  the  Census 
of  Occupations. 

(8)  Clerical.  The  relative  wages  of  clerks  in  manufacturing  and 
transportation  have  been  used  as  an  index  for  computing  the 
rate  of  wages  in  different  States.  The  number  of  persons  em- 
ployed is  estimated  from  the  Census  of  Occupations. 

These  data  make  possible  a  reasonably  accurate  estimate  of  the  differ- 
ences in  wage  levels  that  exist  among  the  48  States. 


8  THE  DISTRIBUTION   OF   INCOME  BY   STATES 

C.  Income  of  Farm  Laborers. 

Farm  laborers  form  a  problem  by  themselves.  Their  wages,  as  shown 
in  the  Year  Book  of  the  Department  of  Agriculture,  vary  widely  from  one 
State  to  another.  The  rates  used  here  are  average  monthly  wages  without 
board,  and  thus  furnish  material  only  for  an  index  of  variations.  The 
average  wage  of  farm  laborers  in  1919  was  estimated  at  $518,  and  the  total 
wages  at  $2,302  million.  This  total  for  the  entire  country  was  apportioned 
among  the  States  according  to  the  index  of  variations  made  by  taking  the 
products  of  the  number  of  farm  laborers  in  each  State  times  the  average 
monthly  wages.    These  results  appear  in  the  summary  table. 

D.  Income  of  Farmers. 

The  distribution  of  the  total  income  of  farmers  in  1919  among  the  various 
states  is  the  most  difficult  and  complicated  of  the  various  subdivisions  with 
which  we  have  to  deal.  Without  an  actual  census  of  farmers'  incomes,  the 
extraordinary  diversity  of  production  and  costs  presents  problems  which 
can  only  be  solved  in  rough  approximations.  In  addition  the  reports  of 
the  Department  of  Agriculture  contain  duplications  which  may  be  elim- 
inated only  in  a  broad  way.  These  reports  do  not  differentiate  between 
the  crops  which  are  sold  as  crops  and  those  which  are  sold  or  used  to  feed 
animals. 

While  such  corrections  may  be  made  for  the  country  as  a  whole  with  a 
tolerable  degree  of  accuracy,  errors  are  apt  to  loom  large  in  the  subdivi- 
sions by  States.  Since  it  has  not  been  possible  to  divide  all  the  items  of 
product  or  of  expenses  among  the  States,  the  larger  ones  only  have  been 
chosen  and  used  as  an  index  of  the  proportions  in  which  the  total  farmers' 
income  of  $10,850  million  was  divided.  As  a  matter  of  fact  the  total  re- 
sulting from  the  use  of  this  index  came  very  near  the  national  total,  being 
$10,978  million;  but  the  closeness  of  these  figures  is  largely  a  matter  of 
chance,  for  among  the  products  of  each  State  no  account  has  been  taken 
of  the  direct  income  received  by  the  farmers,  such  as  milk,  butter,  vegeta- 
bles, home  rent,  etc.  In  the  expenses  no  account  has  been  taken  of  seed, 
horses  sold,  feed  purchased,  etc.  These  items,  however,  are  of  relatively 
minor  importance  and  do  not  affect  the  validity  of  the  index  to  any  marked 
degree.  The  items  comprising  the  index  are  by  all  odds  the  largest  affecting 
farmers'  income.  And  they  are  also  the  items  concerning  whose  distribu- 
tion by  States  we  have  the  most  accurate  information.  Most  of  them  are 
reported  in  the  Census  of  1920  and  the  others,  for  the  most  part,  rest  on 
Census  data. 

The  method  of  attack  has  been  to  take  as  a  basis  for  the  farmers'  income 
of  each  State  the  crops  raised.  These  are  definitely  recorded  for  each 
State,  and  form,  for  the  country  as  a  whole,  about  nine-tenths  of  the  value 


THE  METHOD  9 

product  of  farmers.  To  the  value  of  these  crops  must  be  added  the  value 
produced  by  (1)  animals  slaughtered  and  (2)  animal  products  over  and 
above  the  value  of  those  crops  that  are  fed  to  animals.1 

The  value  added  by  animals  slaughtered  has  been  based  on  a  large  num- 
ber of  reports  of  the  costs  of  producing  beef  and  hogs.  These  indicate  that 
the  ratio  of  feed  costs  to  other  costs  is  about  four  to  one.  On  the  assump- 
tion that  total  costs  are  roughly  equal  to  total  value,  the  indication  is  that 
about  twenty  per  cent  of  the  value  of  animals  slaughtered  is  an  addition 
to  the  value  of  the  crops  that  have  been  fed  to  these  animals. 

While  this  rule  seems  to  hold  for  most  of  the  country,  an  exception 
must  be  made  in  the  range  states  (Texas,  Oklahoma,  Montana,  Idaho, 
Colorado,  Wyoming,  New  Mexico,  Arizona,  Utah,  and  Nevada)  in  which 
the  value  added  by  animals  above  the  crops  they  are  fed  is  estimated  at 
fifty  per  cent  of  their  total  value.  This  change  in  ratio  is  due  to  the  fact 
that  crops  (range  grass)  on  which  these  cattle  are  largely  fed  is  not  counted 
by  the  Census  in  its  value  of  total  crops.  Of  course,  the  same  remark  holds 
true  concerning  all  animals  which  are  out  at  pasture;  but  it  is  "more" 
true  of  the  range  States.  That  there  is  a  distinct  difference  between  these 
states  and  the  rest  of  the  country  is  indicated  by  the  fact  that  in  all  other 
states  there  are  54,624,057  hogs  and  50,822,210  cattle;  whereas  in  the 
range  states  there  are  4,722,352  hogs  and  15,830,349  cattle.  In  the  rest 
of  the  country,  therefore,  hogs  and  cattle  are  roughly  equal.  In  the  range 
states  there  are  more  than  three  times  as  many  cattle  as  hogs.  In  addition, 
there  is  little  fattening  of  cattle  in  the  range  States. 

Having  determined  on  the  proportion  of  the  value  of  animals  slaughtered 
which  may  be  considered  a  net  addition  to  the  value  of  crops  which  they 
are  fed,  it  remains  to  determine  the  value  of  animals  slaughtered.    This 

1  Some  hypothetical  examples  will  explain  this  procedure. 

(a)  If  all  farmers  in  state  A  raised  feed  worth  say,  a  million  dollars;  and  sold  it  to 
farmers  in  state  B,  who  raised  no  feed  at  all,  but  only  fattened  cattle,  the  record  might 
stand 

State  A  produces  crops  worth $1,000,000 

State  B  produces  cattle  of  gross  value 1,250,000 

State  B  produces  cattle  of  net  value  (20%) 250,000 

Total  value  of  agriculture  in  both  states  (A  +  B) 1,250,000 

The  million  dollars  worth  of  feed  bought  by  the  farmers  of  State  B  from  those  of 
State  A  is  thus  counted  out. 

(b)  If  one  set  of  farmers  in  one  state  sell  feed  to  another  set  of  farmers  of  the  same 
state,  who  raise  only  cattle,  then  the  record  stands 

Value  of  crops  raised $1,000,000 

Value  of  cattle  slaughtered 1,250,000 

Net  value  of  cattle  slaughtered 250,000 

Income  of  Farmers 1,250,000 

(c)  If  all  farmers  raise  crops  and  feed  them  to  their  own  animals,  then  the  record 
stands 

Value  of  crops  raised $1,000,000 

Value  of  animals  slaughtered 1,250,000 

Net  value  of  animals  slaughtered 250,000 

Income  of  Farmers 1,250,000 


10 


THE   DISTRIBUTION   OF  INCOME  BY  STATES 


figure  is  not  included  in  the  Census;  but  the  Bureau  of  Animal  Industry 
reports  the  total  production  of  meat;  and  the  average  values  of  the  different 
kinds  of  animals  slaughtered  are  shown  in  the  Department  of  Agriculture 
Year  Book  for  1920.  From  these  data  the  total  value  of  animals  slaugh- 
tered in  the  United  States  may  be  estimated  as  follows: 


TABLE  3 

TOTAL  VALUE  OF  ANIMALS  SLAUGHTERED  IN  1919 » 


U.S. 
inspected 

Other 

Total 

number 

slaughtered 

Average 
value 

Total  value 

(thousand 

dollars) 

Cattle 

10,089,984 

3,969,019 

12,691,117 

87,380 

41,811,830 

3,545,100 

5,072,000 

3,573,700 

160,100 

24,868,500 

13,635,084 

9,041,019 

16,264,817 

247,480 

66,680,330 

$44.22 
25.00 
11.63 
10.00 
22.00 

$    602,943 

226,025 

189,160 

2,475 

1,466,967 

Calves 

Sheeps  and  Lambs 

Goats 

Swine 

Total 

$2,487,570  * 

Twenty  per  cent  of  the  value  of  animals  slaughtered,  $2,487,570,000,  is 
$497,514,000,  and  when  a  correction  is  made  for  the  fifty  per  cent  which  is 
attributed  to  the  value  of  animals  in  the  range  States,  this  total  becomes 
$652,952,000.  This  sum  therefore  is  counted  a  net  addition  to  the  value  of 
the  total  crops  produced.  In  order  to  divide  this  among  the  various  States 
the  total  value  of  beef  cattle,  sheep,  goats,  and  swine  was  taken  for  each 
State  and  the  $652,952,000,  was  divided  in  accordance  with  this  index. 
The  assumption  underlying  this  division  is  that  the  value  of  animals 
slaughtered  in  the  States  varies  in  the  same  ratio  as  the  value  of  the  animals 
in  those  States;  an  assumption  which  appears  to  be  in  general  accord  with 
the  facts. 

The  values  of  animal  products  are  reported  by  States  in  the  Census;  but, 
as  in  dealing  with  meat,  it  is  necessary  to  determine  what  proportion  of 
this  value  may  be  considered  a  net  addition  to  the  crops  that  are  used  to 
produce  it.  On  this  point  the  evidence  is  less  clear  than  in  the  case'of  meat 
production.  A  study  of  the  cost  reports  of  the  Bureau  of  Farm  Manage- 
ment indicates  that  about  sixty  per  cent  of  the  costs  may  be  attributed  to 
feed  and  about  forty  per  cent  to  other  items.  This  proportion  is  broadly 
corroborated  by  Mr.  H.  A.  Wallace,  Editor  of  Wallace's  Magazine  and  by 
Mr.  F.  A.  Peck,  formerly  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  and  now  with 

1  Supplied  through  the  courtesy  of  the  Bureau  of  Animal  Industry. 

2  The  total  value  of  animals  sold  and  slaughtered  on  farms  is  given  in  an  advance 
bulletin  of  the  Census  at  $3,511,201.21.  This  figure,  however,  contains  considerable 
duplication,  since  many  animals  are  sold  twice;  it  is  only  in  the  range  States  that  there 
is  little  re-selling  and  in  these  States  the  values  reported  by  the  Census  agree  fairly 
closely  with  those  used. 


THE  METHOD  11 

the  University  of  Minnesota.  If  we  accept  forty  per  cent  as  the  net  addi- 
tion and  apply  it  to  the  total  value  of  animal  products  of  $2,667,072,273,* 
then  the  net  addition  is  found  to  be  $1,067,000,000.  Since  the  total  value 
of  animal  products  is  reported  by  States,  the  amount  to  be  added  on  this 
account  can  be  computed  directly. 

A  broad  check  upon  the  total  value  added  by  "Animals  Slaughtered" 
and  "Animal  Products"  may  be  had  by  comparing  the  results  obtained  by 
the  preceding  method  on  the  one  hand  and  the  net  value  as  found  by  sub- 
tracting the  crops  fed  to  animals  from  the  total  value  product  of  those 
animals  on  the  other  hand.  These  crops  are  mainly  hay,  corn,  barley  and 
oats,  and  the  percentage  of  each  of  these  crops  sold  is  reported  in  the  Cen- 
sus. From  the  total  amounts  fed  must  further  be  subtracted  for  our 
present  purposes  the  value  of  crops  fed  to  horses  and  mules  on  the  farms. 
The  amounts  fed  to  horses  and  mules  are  estimated  at  two  thirds  the  Army 
ration — 12  lbs.  oats  and  14  lbs.  hay  for  horses,  and  9  lbs.  oats  and  14  lbs. 
hay  for  mules. 

This  comparison  works  out  as  follows: 

(1)  Value  added  by  animals  slaughtered $   652,952,000 

Value  added  by  animal  products 1,066,828,909 

Total  value  added $1,719,780,909 

(2)  Total    value    of    animals    slaughtered    and    animal 

products $5,154,643,044 

Less  value  of  crops  fed  to  live  stock 

(total  value  of  crops  fed $5,698,995,210 

less  value  fed  to  horses 2,069,597,962 

$3,629,397,248 

$1,525,245,796 

The  two  methods  of  estimating  the  value  product  added  by  animals  and 
animal  products  over  and  above  the  crops  fed  to  animals  differ  by  about 
11  per  cent — not  a  wide  difference  as  such  matters  go — and  indicate  that 
the  percentages  used  in  estimating  the  net  addition  to  animals  slaughtered 
and  animal  products  are  tolerably  reliable. 

1  Summary  of  the  Census  of  Agriculture,  1919  and  1920.    Table  26,  page  15. 


12 


THE  DISTRIBUTION  OF  INCOME  BY  STATES 


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THE   METHOD  19 

One  other  remark  should  be  made  concerning  the  variations  among 
States  in  farming.  Differences  in  crops  and  their  values  are  taken  account 
of  in  the  Census  figures ;  the  same  is  true  of  variations  in  the  amount  spent 
on  fertilizer,  labor,  interest  on  mortgage,  and  animal  products.  Crops  sold 
by  farmers  to  other  farmers  and  used  as  feed  by  them,  are  taken  account  of 
first  by  using  the  entire  crop  values  for  each  State;  and  second  by  adding  to 
their  value  only  that  part  of  the  value  of  animals  slaughtered  on  the  farm 
or  sold  for  slaughter,  and  of  animal  products  which  is  imputed  to  other  ex- 
penses than  the  value  of  feed.  There  are,  however,  variations  in  the  feed 
of  animals,  especially  the  proportion  that  is  due  to  grazing,  which  are  not 
taken  account  of  in  the  Census  figures.  Such  variations  cause  some  error; 
corrected  in  a  very  rough  manner  for  the  range  States  alone.  But  the  error 
cannot  be  large;  for  crops  constitute  about  90  per  cent  of  the  total  value 
product  according  to  this  method  of  counting;  so  that  the  error  must  be  in 
the  remaining  10  per  cent  only. 

The  amounts  shown,  then,  are  not  put  forward  as  exact;  they  are,  rather, 
working  estimates,  which  appear  to  be  substantiated  fairly  well  by  the 
cross  checks  which  have  been  used.1 

E.  Corporate  Surplus. 

The  corporate  surplus  in  1919,  which  amounted  to  2.0  billion  {Income 
in  the  United  States,  volume  II,  chapter  25)  is  a  difficult  item  to  distribute 
among  the  States.  Perhaps  the  best  approximation  is  to  credit  it  in  the 
same  ratio  as  the  value  added  by  manufactures  in  each  State,  an  item  which 
is  reported  in  the  Census  of  Manufactures  for  1919. 2  A  comparison  with 
earlier  Censuses  shows  that  this  percentage  distribution  remains  fairly 
constant  from  one  census  period  to  the  next,  so  that  there  can  be  no  great 
error  in  applying  these  figures  to  the  total  corporate  surplus. 

1  The  low  average  income  per  farm  in  Montana  ($137)  may  not  be  typical.  Montana 
crops  in  1919  were  particularly  bad;  the  composite  number  of  all  crop  yields  in  1919  as 
shown  in  the  Department  of  Agriculture  Year  Book,  1920,  p.  810,  was  40,  as  compared  to 
83  in  1920,  66  in  1918,  55  in  1917,  86  in  1916,  107  in  1915,  and  90  in  1914.  The  "hypo- 
thetical" value  of  all  crops  in  Montana,  as  estimated  bv  the  Department  of  Agriculture 
(page  807),  in  1919  is  $71,552,000  as  against  $146,713,000  in  1918  and  a  five  year  average, 
1914  to  1918,  of  $95,158,000.  If  the  value  of  crops  raised  had  been  what  one  would  have 
expected  in  a  "normal"  year,  then  the  average  income  per  farmer  would  have  been  about 
$1,200  to  $1,500  (instead  of  $137)  a  figure  that  is  not  out  of  line  with  the  averages  of 
surrounding  states. 

2  Various  other  ratios  of  distribution  have  been  suggested — (1)  the  distribution  of  the 
non-agricultural  income  of  each  State;  (2)  the  distribution  of  dividends  received  as  re- 
ported by  the  Bureau  of  Internal  Revenue  in  Statistics  of  Income.  Both  of  these  methods 
are  logical,  especially  the  latter.  It  is  questioned,  however,  whether  corporate  surplus 
really  goes  to  stockholders  in  the  sense  indicated.  To  some  extent,  it  goes  to  the  com- 
munity. As  a  practical  matter,  the  distribution  resulting  from  the  use  of  any  one  of 
these  ratios  is  about  the  same. 


20  THE  DISTRIBUTION  OF  INCOME  BY  STATES 

F.  The  Totals. 

The  preceding  items  need  to  be  cast  up  to  get  the  total  income  for  each 
State.  While  the  figures  for  persons  having  incomes  over  and  under 
$2,000  exclude  the  farmers,  and  are  therefore  rather  artificial,  they  possess 
a  certain  independent  interest.  Of  course  this  form  of  presentation  is 
necessary  because  the  Federal  Income  Tax  data  give  arbitrary  prominence 
to  the  $2,000  line. 


THE   METHOD 


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THE  RESULTS  23 

III.  THE  RESULTS 

1.  New  York  State  with  an  income  of  about  nine  billion  dollars,  which  is 
over  one-eighth  of  the  total  National  Income,  has  by  far  the  largest  income 
of  any  State.  It  is  followed  in  succession  by  Pennsylvania,  Illinois,  Ohio, 
Massachusetts,  California,  Michigan,  and  Texas.  At  the  other  end  of  the 
list  is  Nevada,  with  an  income  of  less  than  one  hundred  million  dollars. 

2.  The  Middle  Atlantic  States  (New  York,  New  Jersey  and  Pennsyl- 
vania), taken  as  a  group,  have  over  one-fourth  of  the  National  Income;  and 
with  the  East  North  Central  group  and  the  New  England  States,  have 
more  than  one-half  of  the  total. 

3.  New  York  again  heads  the  list  of  per  capita  incomes,  with  $874. 
Nevada,  California,  Delaware,  Wyoming,  Massachusetts,  and  Washington 
are  next  with  around  $800.  At  the  other  end  of  the  scale,  with  per  capita 
incomes  of  less  than  $400  each  are  Georgia,  Kentucky,  North  Carolina, 
Arkansas,  Tennessee,  Mississippi,  and  Alabama. 

4.  Taken  as  a  group,  the  Pacific  States  have  the  largest  per  capita  in- 
come, with  $796;  next  are  the  Middle  Atlantic  States,  with  $783.  The  per 
capita  income  of  the  East  South  Central  States  was  less  than  half  these 
amounts,  or  $364. 

5.  The  average  income  of  the  gainfully  employed  shows  variations  from 
the  per  capita  income  due  to  the  wide  differences  in  the  character  of  the 
employment  of  the  population  in  the  various  States.  South  Dakota  and 
New  York  head  the  list  with  just  over  $2,000;  and  close  to  this  mark  are 
Nebraska,  Iowa,  Delaware,  Illinois,  and  Wyoming.  At  the  other  end  of 
the  list  are  Alabama  and  Mississippi,  both  just  under  $900. 

6.  The  Middle  Atlantic  States  have  the  largest  average  income  of 
gainfully  employed  with  $1,886  and  the  Pacific  States  have  $1,837.  At  the 
other  end,  the  East  South  Central  States  have  the  smallest  with  $979. 

7.  The  per  cent  of  non-agricultural  Income  in  each  State  received  by 
persons  having  incomes  over  $2,000  per  year  is  difficult  to  interpret.  The 
percentage  is  high  where  there  are  large  incomes;  but  it  may  also  be  high 
owing  to  a  large  number  of  moderate  incomes.  If  we  had  sufficient  data  to 
plot  a  curve  representing  the  distribution  of  incomes  in  each  state,  such 
variations  might  be  brought  out,  but  this  is  not  feasible  with  the  existing 
data.  South  Dakota  shows  the  highest  percentage,  having  over  one-half 
of  its  non-agricultural  income  received  by  persons  with  incomes  over 
$2,000;  next  in  order  are  Iowa,  New  York,  Nebraska,  Maryland,  and 
Delaware.  At  the  other  end  of  the  scale  are  North  Carolina,  Wisconsin, 
West  Virginia,  and  Alabama,  which  show  about  one-fourth  of  their  non- 
agricultural  incomes  received  by  persons  having  over  $2,000  per  annum. 

8.  Texas  has  the  largest  farmers'  income,  with  nearly  900  million  dol- 


24  THE  DISTRIBUTION   OF   INCOME   BY   STATES 

lars.  Iowa  and  Illinois  come  next,  each  just  above  600  million  dollars. 
Rhode  Island  farmers  are  last,  with  aggregate  incomes  of  three  million 
dollars. 

9.  The  largest  average  income  of  farmers  is  found  in  California,  with 
$3,485;  next  in  Nevada,  with  $3,354.  The  only  other  States  near  the 
$3,000  mark  are  Arizona,  Iowa,  and  Nebraska.  With  the  exception  of 
Montana,  which  had  an  abnormally  poor  year  in  1919,  the  States  having 
the  lowest  averages  (all  less  than  $1,000)  were  Kentucky  Tennessee,  Con- 
necticut, Alabama,  Florida,  Massachusetts,  West  Virginia,  New  Hamp- 
shire, and  Rhode  Island. 

10.  Taken  as  a  group,  the  East  North  Central  and  the  West  North 
Central  States  have  nearly  one-half  of  the  farmers'  income  of  the  country. 
The  Middle  Atlantic  States  have  only  6  per  cent,  and  New  England  less 
than  two  per  cent. 

11.  Farmers'  income  constitutes  over  one-half  the  total  State  income  in 
North  Dakota.  It  is  over  40  per  cent  in  South  Dakota,  South  Carolina, 
Mississippi,  Arkansas,  Nebraska,  and  North  Carolina.  On  the  other  hand, 
it  is  less  than  four  per  cent  in  New  York,  New  Jersey,  and  Connecticut, 
and  less  than  one  per  cent  in  Massachusetts  and  Rhode  Island. 

12.  Taken  as  a  group,  farmers'  incomes  constitute  about  one-third  of  the 
total  income  in  the  West  South  Central,  the  West  North  Central,  and  the 
East  South  Central  States.  On  the  other  hand,  they  constitute  about  one- 
thirtieth  of  the  total  income  in  New  England  and  the  Middle  Atlantic 
States. 


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